Some of The Hottest Races in the State, Why Republicans Will Win, and How Third Parties Can Succeed in Utah
By Chris Nizzardini
Beehive Collective
Utah voters in twenty-five districts will have no choice this November. These districts had their legislature picked during a GOP closed Primary. If you live in one of these districts you will never get a chance to vote because only one candidate is on the ballot, a republican. In another four districts it is republican against libertarian, and in one other republican versus green.
We don’t think races like Congressional District Two are the hot races. The Beehive Collective will instead be looking closely at State Senate District 15, and State House Districts 55, 56, 64, and 67. We find these races most interesting because you won’t find a democratic challenger like in most areas of the county. In these districts the second party is either Libertarian or Green, and only in these five areas will voters be presented with a real alternative to the states predominantly conservative agenda.
In districts pitting republican against libertarian voters will be forced to decide between republican strong points such as gun rights, low taxes, small government, and fiscal responsibility and a libertarian platform which is even stronger on gun rights, lowering taxes, eliminating government waste, and going above and beyond the conservatives idea of fiscal responsibility. With no democratic candidate present in these districts, the republican candidate has two options ignore the libertarian and just hope he gets the votes needed or actively campaign against the libertarian. Likewise the libertarian has two choices, exploit the republican candidates weakness on the later issues and have a shot at winning or play the typical role of a do nothing campaign.
If each libertarian campaigns hard, and attacks the GOPs obvious weakness on the issues, at least one libertarian can win, and with a good show in office this could set the tone for future libertarian candidacies in the state.
House District 55 will be in my opinion the race to watch on Election Day if you’re into third parties like we are at the Beehive Collective. This is the only race where a Green has a shot at winning a large percentage of the votes. With no Democratic candidate running, John Weisheit will win the dissident vote from non-conservative democrats who refuse to vote republican. This is a considerable amount. If Weisheit can capitalize on the support he wins this election, he can have a real shot at winning in 2004 if we moves his agenda more towards the center, and supports gun rights, tax reduction, and stays out of the abortion mine field that his Republican challenger will surely lay for him should he decide to campaign against a Green.
It is very likely that republicans will not debate or even take notice of alternative candidates in these districts, much like Chris Cannon has done in congressional district three with Woodside. However this allows alternative candidates to unleash a ruthless verbal assault on republican policy, and the candidates record. With careful and diligent campaign work this can continue with the republican losing ground in polls or until finally the republican acknowledges the dissident candidate. Either way it is a victory for the states third party candidates. Remember we only need one-third party candidate in office to speak for all on campaign and election reforms.
So this brings up the question. Should Utahan libertarian and greens (more so) focus on races where no democrat is present, and thus have better odds of winning as opposed to campaigning in elections like congressional one and two where they know that they don’t have a chance. Feel free to talk about this in the discussion group.
Beehive Collective
